Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) is expected to announce the consumer price inflation for the month of August 2017 in the coming days.
This is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with 2012 as the base year with an index of 100.
Latest statistics from the GSS shows that the CPI increased from 180.3 in July 2016 to 201.7 in July 2017. This means a year – on – year inflation rate of 11.90% in July 2017as against the 12.10% recorded for June 2017. This represents a monthly reduction of 0.2 percentage point.
The Food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 7.2% representing 1 percentage point increase from the 6.2% recorded in June 2017. Two subgroups within the food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded inflation rates higher than the group’s average rate of 7.2%. These are; Fish and sea food subgroup (14.4%) and Meat and meat products recorded (9.5%)
On the other hand, non-food inflation group recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 14.2% in July 2017, relative to the 15.1% recorded in June 2017. Within the non – food group, five subgroups recorded more than the average year – on – year inflation for the group. These are; Transport (22.0%), recreation and culture (19.2%), furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance (18.7%), clothing and footwear (15.7%) and miscellaneous goods and services (14.8%). However, the Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels subgroup recorded the lowest inflation rate of 6.2%.
During the month of August 2017, the cedi depreciated by an average of 0.02% and 0.05% against the US dollar and the Euro respectively as against 0.01% and 0.18% in July 2017. It however appreciated against the pounds by 0.08% as against 0.07% depreciation over the same period. Generally, the cedi has remained fairly stable in August 2017. Aside the cedi’s stability, utility prices have also remained relatively stable. These should reduce the pass through effects on inflation rate for the month.
Therefore, considering the relative stability in the cedi and utility prices, the monetary policy stance and the historical trend of inflation, GN Research analysts expect inflation to decrease to 11.6% for the month of August 2017.
Year-on-Year Consumer Price Inflation (%), October 2015 to July 2017
By GN Research
